Chapter 4: Experts

"Where have all the criminals gone?"
Answer: they were never born.

Anyone even barely paying attention to the news back then heard about the horrible crime problem that major cities faced, and everyone said that it was only going to get worse.

Then, as the years went by, the problem disappeared. Both violent and non-violent crime fell by as much as 40 percent over the coming years. Experts and politicians claimed it was a combination of sound economic policies, innovative policing methods, and so on, but no one mentioned the biggest factor.

Abortion. In 1973 Roe v. Wade legalized abortion in all states. By the mid-90s, the children that would have been born to mothers that couldn't handle raising children stopped being born.

The authors break down the contributing factors. Longer prison terms and more effective prosecution contributed 33 percent -- there were greater disincentives to committing crimes. Increased numbers of police helped as well -- contributing to 10 percent of the drop.

Changes in crack and other drug markets contributed a bit, but considering they helped boost the crime rate in the first place, it sort of cancelled itself out. The biggest factor was that since 1973 there were about 1.6 million children a year (on average) that were weren't being born.

Those children would have been born to mothers who weren't in a position to properly care for them, either because they were too young, too poor, or addicted. One can debate the morality of this, but it's the truth.

"Was it worth it" is the obvious question, and the authors steer well clear of making a judgment. That's up to voters, not economists.


This leads to