My branch manager emailed me the results of the promotion board for the 2008 year-group logisticians. It does not look good.
Of the 369 primary zone captains, the board selected only 235 (64%) for promotion to major. This, compared with 72% Army-wide. I guess it's tough being a logistician.
This picture shows the likelihood of selection, given a candidate's last five evaluations. Here's how I see the process working:
- Does the candidate have any bad paperwork (Article 15s, Letters of Reprimand, etc.)? If yes, then 100% not selected.
- Does the candidate have three or more "top blocks," with one of them from their company command time? If yes, then 100% selected (182).
- Does the candidate have two top blocks? If yes, then 68% selected (50 of 73). Note that all 50 had one of their two in company command.
- Does the candidate have only one top block? If yes, then 5% selected (3 of 59). Note that all 3 had it in company command.
So, of the 235 selected, 100% of them had at least one top block during their company command time. And among the 134
not selected for promotion are all those who could not muster a top block evaluation during their company command time.
Had I been in the 2008 year group, that would have included me, and this certainly makes me nervous. My board meets in just four more months.
Compare this board's results with six years ago, when the promotion rate was 94%, or even four years ago, when it was 84%. Times have certainly changed, and it looks like -- despite my best efforts -- I'm on my way out.
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