Wednesday, January 03, 2024

The "Post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy

Texas senator Ted Cruz is facing calls to be banned from all Texas Sports, given the following evidence of a curse:
  • Cruz was there when the Rockets lost to the Warriors in 2018.
  • Cruz was there when Texas Tech lost in 2019 against the Cavaliers.
  • Cruz was there when the Astros lost in October 2023 to the Rangers. Cruz also attended all five of the Astros' home game losses.
  • Cruz was there was the Longhorns lost in the Sugar Bowl.
It's the classic "post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy at work again. (This happened before that, so *this* must have caused *that.*)

But superstitions like this rely on selective memory. In response to accusations of a curse, Cruz responded, "For 7 years, Catherine [Cruz's daughter] & I have attended nearly EVERY Astros home playoff game."

"If they're going to blame me for our recent home losses, pls also credit us for TWO World Series Championships & SEVEN consecutive ALCS's—we were there cheering Stros on!" [Source]

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