Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Breaking a campaign pledge, Korean style

South Korean president-elect Lee Myung-Bak (이명박, 李明博) hasn't even been sworn in, but he's already dumped his central campaign pledge: the 747 plan. [Source]

The plan called for Korea to maintain 7 percent growth, attain a per-capita GDP of $40,000, and become the world's 7th largest economy. Currently, growth is a bit under 5 percent, the per capita GDP is about $20,000, and the economy is the world's 11th largest.

On Monday, he held a press conference and downgraded growth expectations to 6 percent.

I'm not surprised. The only way to get 7 percent growth out of Korea is with 5 percent inflation. The campaign pledge was just a gimmick. (Imagine Korea as a 747, flying high, high up in the sky!)

Even with 7 percent growth, the second part of the plan still would have been impossible. Getting from $20,000 to $40,000 in five years requires 14-15 percent annual growth (some quick Rule of 72 stuff there). That's just plain silly -- it would be faster than China has ever grown, in a country that is already at an unprecedented stage in its development.

I'm not sure which one's worse: blowing off the whole thing right after the election, or the American way of at least waiting until half-way through the term ("Read my lips: No new taxes").

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