In recent years, there's been a big need for captains, so lieutenants were being promoted less than 38 months after commissioning. This, depite guidance in Army Regulation (AR) 600-8-29 that provides for such a promotion around the 42 month mark (the first 18 months as second lieutenant; first lieutenant after that).
HRC is trying to normalize this by trying to get back to 42 months, just as I'm counting down the months until I can trade in the silver bar for a railroad track. In December the primary zone of consideration will be those who got promoted to first lieutenant between April 1, 2010 and March 31, 2011.
So basically, because my promotion date to first lieutenant was in June 2010, I’ll be considered for promotion by that board, and the results will be posted in April. There’s about a 99% chance that I’ll be on that list -- promotion to captain is an administrative, not competitive. If that's the case, I predict I'll in captain on in July.
Once the results are posted (and assuming I’m on the list), I’ll be considered “first lieutenant, promotable.” There’s no change in pay or authority or anything, but I will be able to schedule my captain’s career course at that point. Since by that point the May will be too soon, I hope to make it into the July class. So will everyone else I can imagine.
If you're wondering what the best time is to commission, I would say that the best time to go through Officer Candidate School (OCS) is in September. That way, when you get promoted eighteen months later – in March – you’d be on the tail end of the promotion schedule. If the current pace of promotions holds up, it’s very likely that you’ll get promoted faster than someone who’s at the beginning of the cycle and has to wait for the next year’s board.
Regarding "below the zone" and "above the zone" promotions: for captain, there is no "below the zone" consideration. It doesn't matter if you have a Medal of Honor, you're not getting promoted faster than your time in grade requires. For major, between 3 and 5 percent are promoted below the zone.
It should provide some comfort, though, to know that "above the zone" promotions are rare – first, you have to have done something pretty stupid to not get considered for promotion to captain in the primary zone. Second, you have to have turned things around for consideration the next year.
Not every above the zone promotion has to be the result of malfeasance, though. One example would be a perseon who -- because of deployment -- hadn’t finished their degree completion program by the deadline for consideration in the primary zone.
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