All over the world, the U.S. dollar is a symbol of American strength. As a fiat currency, the value of the dollar is based on the relative strength of the U.S. economy (among other things, yes), so this seems appropriate.
So why, then, did a return to the gold standard come up during the Republican primary debates? What do they have against an independent dollar?
Americans have long regarded gold with a peculiar fascination, and gold's influence is felt throughout much of our history. The earliest Jamestown settlers hoped to find it, gold rushes have fed its mania since the 1790s, and even during the Great Recession it served as the ultimate secure investment.
Even today, there are those who argue that a return to the gold standard would help alleviate many of our economic problems. So then, why does every economist recognize this as a certifiably BAD idea?
To understand the benefits and disadvantages of such a decision, it helps to know the history of America's relationship with gold, and that's what James Ledbetter's One Nation Under Gold is about.
Ledbetter traces the role gold has played since our independence, and in the process shows that the desire to acquire, amass, and control gold has played an powerful role in our economic and political history.
Before reading the book, though, you need to understand three underlying economic principles about currencies.
First is that money serves two functions. It serves a medium of exchange in that it's more useful than lugging around an ox looking for someone to barter with. You need to find something that's valuable to the people you deal with, and your need it in just the right quantities to make it rare but still accessible. Money also serves a store of value, so it needs to be something that's not prone to mold, rust, or decay.
To meet these needs, different things have served as money in different places and times, with corresponding advantages and disadvantages. Rice worked well in 1600s Japan because everyone could use it (land value was even determined by how many koku (石) of rice it could produce), but it didn't work well as a store of value. Wampum worked OK in America's pre-colonial period as a storage of value, they weren't universally accepted.
Precious metals like gold and silver work well for both these functions, but not perfectly. If the world economy completely collapses in a massive, apocalyptic crisis one day, all the gold in the world won't help you find something to eat. It will lose its value. And as a store of value, precious metals are more vulnerable to theft.
The second principle is that no matter what you use as money, you can control only two of three variables: convertibility, interest rate control, and price stability. In the 1980s, Argentina pegged its currency to the U.S. dollar to end its inflation problems. It got convertibility and price stability, but lost its ability to control interest rates. In 1997, prices and interest rates in China were mostly unaffected by the 1997 Asian financial crisis, but this was because it had instituted currency controls (sacrificing convertibility).
And in Japan's "Lost Decade," you can see problems with price stability. Japan maintained convertibility with the world economy, and lowered its interest rates to almost zero. Nevertheless, this wasn't enough, and in the days before "Quantitative Easing" the destruction of capital resulted in deflation.
With a gold standard, a country essentially pegs their currency's value to that of gold. If new gold mines are discovered, the currency experiences inflation. If you raise the interest rate to combat inflation, it may hurt the economy at a really bad time. If there's a discrepancy with the interest rate, gold may flow out of the country. And if you institute currency controls to limit that, you cut yourself off from the global economy. When the U.S. operated on a gold standard, the dollar saw all of those things.
Third is that time will force you to change your choices, and usually at a time that's not of your choice. The Argentinian economy bubbled when the U.S. interest rate was too low for what the Argentine economy needed, and when it crashed it had to break its dollar peg. To better integrate with the world economy, the Chinese did the same, and adjusted their currency controls. And the United States, facing an increasing flow of gold out of the country throughout the 1960s, had to finally drop the gold standard in 1973.
With these principles in mind, the American experience with gold will make a lot more sense. The next post will cover each chapter in One Nation Under Gold, and talk about how developments throughout the world led to changes in the U.S. dollar's relationship with gold.
Monday, September 23, 2019
Review: One Nation Under Gold, part 1
All over the world, the U.S. dollar is a symbol of American strength. As a fiat currency, the value of the dollar is based on the relative strength of the U.S. economy (among other things, yes), so this seems appropriate.
So why, then, did a return to the gold standard come up during the Republican primary debates? What do they have against an independent dollar?
Americans have long regarded gold with a peculiar fascination, and gold's influence is felt throughout much of our history. The earliest Jamestown settlers hoped to find it, gold rushes have fed its mania since the 1790s, and even during the Great Recession it served as the ultimate secure investment.
Even today, there are those who argue that a return to the gold standard would help alleviate many of our economic problems. So then, why does every economist recognize this as a certifiably BAD idea?
To understand the benefits and disadvantages of such a decision, it helps to know the history of America's relationship with gold, and that's what James Ledbetter's One Nation Under Gold is about.
Ledbetter traces the role gold has played since our independence, and in the process shows that the desire to acquire, amass, and control gold has played an powerful role in our economic and political history.
Before reading the book, though, you need to understand three underlying economic principles about currencies.
First is that money serves two functions. It serves a medium of exchange in that it's more useful than lugging around an ox looking for someone to barter with. You need to find something that's valuable to the people you deal with, and your need it in just the right quantities to make it rare but still accessible. Money also serves a store of value, so it needs to be something that's not prone to mold, rust, or decay.
To meet these needs, different things have served as money in different places and times, with corresponding advantages and disadvantages. Rice worked well in 1600s Japan because everyone could use it (land value was even determined by how many koku (石) of rice it could produce), but it didn't work well as a store of value. Wampum worked OK in America's pre-colonial period as a storage of value, they weren't universally accepted.
Precious metals like gold and silver work well for both these functions, but not perfectly. If the world economy completely collapses in a massive, apocalyptic crisis one day, all the gold in the world won't help you find something to eat. It will lose its value. And as a store of value, precious metals are more vulnerable to theft.
The second principle is that no matter what you use as money, you can control only two of three variables: convertibility, interest rate control, and price stability. In the 1980s, Argentina pegged its currency to the U.S. dollar to end its inflation problems. It got convertibility and price stability, but lost its ability to control interest rates. In 1997, prices and interest rates in China were mostly unaffected by the 1997 Asian financial crisis, but this was because it had instituted currency controls (sacrificing convertibility).
And in Japan's "Lost Decade," you can see problems with price stability. Japan maintained convertibility with the world economy, and lowered its interest rates to almost zero. Nevertheless, this wasn't enough, and in the days before "Quantitative Easing" the destruction of capital resulted in deflation.
With a gold standard, a country essentially pegs their currency's value to that of gold. If new gold mines are discovered, the currency experiences inflation. If you raise the interest rate to combat inflation, it may hurt the economy at a really bad time. If there's a discrepancy with the interest rate, gold may flow out of the country. And if you institute currency controls to limit that, you cut yourself off from the global economy. When the U.S. operated on a gold standard, the dollar saw all of those things.
Third is that time will force you to change your choices, and usually at a time that's not of your choice. The Argentinian economy bubbled when the U.S. interest rate was too low for what the Argentine economy needed, and when it crashed it had to break its dollar peg. To better integrate with the world economy, the Chinese did the same, and adjusted their currency controls. And the United States, facing an increasing flow of gold out of the country throughout the 1960s, had to finally drop the gold standard in 1973.
With these principles in mind, the American experience with gold will make a lot more sense. The next post will cover each chapter in One Nation Under Gold, and talk about how developments throughout the world led to changes in the U.S. dollar's relationship with gold.
Monday, September 09, 2019
Review: Garrison PTSD
- The Army's inefficient, wasting people's time and taxpayers' money.
- (1) In/out processing takes too long.
- (2) Multiple daily formations that waste time.
- (4) The PCS-ing-in-2-months guy who won't do anything
- (5) The 18-year-man who won't do anything
- (6) Warrant officers who don't do anything
- (7) Department of Defense civilians who don't do anything
- (10) Unapologetic, late leaders
- (11) PowerPoint communication -- the way form trumps function for even trivial decisions
- (12) Officers as mere office administrators, not leaders
- (13) Equal opportunity classes as mere CYA for higher-ups
- (19) Mandatory online training without enough computers to do it
- (20) Lack of "high density" training. Army time is not like the commercials -- 95% is completely un-fun.
- (21) The 4 mile run in 36 minutes requirement -- is exercise really about physical fitness, Esprit de corps, or leaders' ego trips?
- (23) USR and other digital systems. They're meant to gain visibility on subordinate units' deployment capabilities, but seem to be huge wastes of time and aren't used during deployments
- (25) UCMJ sucks up so much time. Let civilian law enforcement deal with problems.
- (27) Meetings, meetings, meetings (and the need to be 15 minutes early while the leader is 15 minutes late)
- (28) Cutthroat officer competition rather than cooperation
- (31) Safety stand downs that brief well but affect nothing
- (32) The 24/7 mentality
- (33) Basic issue items and the need for accountability, despite their general uselessness
- (37) Lack of time to become professional. "The Army is all about preaching the term professional soldier. But if on average you never do a job for more than two years how professional can you ever be?"
- (40) Crazy OPSEC is systems. You've got a bunch of different systems to communicate with different nations and players, but it leads to more time needed just to communicate. (Meanwhile, soldiers know more than officers because they're are posting convoy movements on Facebook.) Plus, monthly USR reports are classified, but getting access to a classified system is ridiculous.
- (41) Encouraged financial irresponsibility (the perennial government budget issues)
- (42) Camouflage. Despite millions spent for the designs, "I seriously doubt whether many casualties have been inflicted or prevented recently due to lack in camouflage design."
- (43) Dog and pony shows. When generals plan visits, people have to "work late for weeks beforehand to make a huge fake impression" on the VIP and his whole entourage.
- (48) 250 mile paperwork. If you want to travel outside the 250 mile radius around your post, you have to do obscene amounts of paperwork. Some commands required this on 4-day weekends even if you didn't leave your home.
- The Army has wrong ideas of fairness
- (14) Unequal pay for single people
- (15) Appointment malingerers
- (16) Equal Opportunity - the Army observes gender privacy, but not sexuality privacy
- (17) Equal Opportunity - the Army should not have different performance standards based on gender
- (22) APFT inequality. There are different standards for different demographics. And despite all the gazillions spent to develop a new APFT, in the end it was scrapped and we kept the old one
- (26) Running fall-outs. The Army values cohesiveness, but can't enforce standards
- Arbitrary or ineffective management/human resource practices
- (3) Mass punishment. The idea is to force units to exercise peer discipline, but just pisses everyone off.
- (30) Dealing with FG officers being out of touch with reality. They lack basic management concepts of responsibility and scope of authority. ("I don't care who's responsible for it! I just want it done!")
- (35) Evaluation reports are pointless. If you're in a staff job with earlier year group peers, no matter what you do, they will get the better evaluation (being closer to their promotion board)
- (38) The fortune cookie career. Roy had an engineering degree, experience, and a letter from the Corps of Engineers saying they wanted him. Nevertheless, he was branched Transportation.
- (45) Awards inconsistency. One gets three awards just for joining these days (GWOT, ASR, & NDSM), and four for deploying to Afghanistan (OSR, ACM, NATO, and ARCOM). Deployment awards are written at the six month mark to accommodate all the revisions that are necessary. Plus, all awards require a perfect write up, but each echelon has a different writing style, and it seems no one ever publishes an SOP about what they want.
- (49) Complicated quitting. It takes a lot of time and paperwork to quit the Army. Currently, the Army says you should plan things out about two years before you would actually leave, but officers who are selected for separation or resign their commissions have only six months before they're out.
- The Army lifestyle
- (39) Living out of a suitcase. You don't have much of a social life working 60 hours a week, not including field exercises and staff duty.
- (50) Two deal breakers (Time and Duty station location). Time in the sense that the Army has no compunctions about using up your time, and frequently requires 12 hours or more of your day. Location in the sense that you have just about no choice where you will go.
- The Army has wrong priorities
- (18) SHARP. The battalion commander on his deployment stated his "CCIR" wake up criteria -- if there's indirect fire don't wake me, but wake me if there's a sexual assault allegation
- (24) Personnel quality vs. quantity. Low quality personnel became "force detractors" from the mission
- (34) inherited messes -- no one has any incentive to clean things up during their time in a position.
- (44) Army medical. You can't just take a sick day, even if your hacking cough causes you to vomit. You have to see a doctor, and specifically get a quarters profile. But doctors will more often than not give you a minor medication and tell you to check back in a week. (Motrin is a popular prescription.)
- (47) War on Terror. You can't fight an insurgency with conventional forces. (Interestingly, the Army's current presence in Afghanistan seems to be taking his advice.)
- The Army's hierarchy facilitates abuse and toxicity
- (8) Napoleon complexes
- (9) All the various leaders who can make your life miserable
- (29) Superiors undermining second lieutenants, treating it as a rite of passage rather than valuing them as future leaders.
- (36) The way seniors get moved up for messing up. Getting moved out of a job promotes career diversity and gets someone an easier job. Generals get "forced to retire."
- (46) Investigations. He did four. JAG always says, "this is your primary duty," but it never is. His worst experience involved a policy (forbidding warning shots) that was changed, but not communicated. A soldier then unknowingly violated the new policy, and was brought up on charges. Roy recommended against punitive action, which seems like a proper action, but got reprimanded by the battalion XO for not taking a harsher line. The easy criticism (from someone who doesn't leave the base) rankled him.
Thursday, August 16, 2018
The four health care outcomes
- Socialized medicine. This system is used in many other industrialized countries, such as Canada, South Korea, and many European countries. The positives are that health care costs are contained and everyone is covered. The negatives are that health insurance industry is effectively nationalized, most people don't receive the level of care that they're willing to pay for (both rich and poor), and patients are no longer customers -- they are recipients of a public good.
- The current system (under the Affordable Health Care Act). Everyone must have health insurance, hospitals are required to treat everyone, and health insurance companies must provide a minimum standard of coverage. The positives are that everyone pays into a system from which everyone can benefits (a correction of a problem in #3) and people can get the coverage they want (with a certain minimum). The negatives are that premiums can be too expensive for the poorest parts of society and there have been uneven transition costs, especially for rural areas.
- The old system. Health insurance was optional (and often employer-based), but hospitals were required to treat everyone. This led to an unsustainable, "eroding river bank" problem, where fewer and fewer people had health insurance, all while it became more and more expensive. The positive aspects were that young and healthy people could save money by not having coverage, and the poorest elements of society could still be seen in an emergency room.
- Dying on the streets. This was how it worked prior to the Reagan-era 1986 Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act. [Source] Only the people who were willing and able to pay for health insurance received its benefits (at least until they qualified for Medicare), so it was financially sustainable -- the people who paid into the system were the ones who received its benefits. However, it led to some undignified actions. Hospitals would discharge sick patients who didn't have insurance or dump them on other institutions, where they were twice as likely to die.
Tuesday, July 31, 2018
More Transition Assistance seminars
- Advanced resume techniques, 8:30-10:00
- Dressing for success, 10:00-11:00
- Interviewing skills and salary negotiations, 1:00-3:00
- They might have something for me that I didn't already know, and
- I don't like spending any more time in the office than absolutely necessary.
- Don't talk salary until after the job offer.
- Do your online homework to determine a fair salary.
- Pad it and use your unique qualifications to justify it.
Friday, July 27, 2018
Finance brief, VA Benefits II
- How much my VA disability will be (50 percent?)
- When the VA will finish their determination (and when I'll be available to start a new job)
- What I'll be making at this new job (it won't be the same)
- Where I'll be living in a year (Hawaii? Mainland? Overseas?)
Tuesday, July 24, 2018
Q: Is the juice worth the squeeze?
Monday, July 23, 2018
Lightning Forge 2018
- We plan the scenario according to training priorities. The unit can be focused on either counter-insurgency, decisive operations, or area defense.
- We coordinate for, and direct, referee-like observers who can provide feedback on how the training brigade did.
- We monitor the battlespace, tracking battlefield actions through Laser Tag-like equipment.
- Food. Everyone assigned to Oahu continues getting their allowance for subsistence, so we don't have to worry about providing food to 95% of participants. And providing food to the people coming from off-island (the other 5%) is very simple -- they get a per diem. Problem solved.
- Vehicle recovery assets. Most of the observer/referees are coming from units that are also stationed on island, so if they have a vehicle break down, most of the time they can take care of themselves. And if one of our rental cars breaks down, we just contact the rental agency.
- Personnel accountability. 25th ID is content to let participating units keep their own accountability, so the numbers are a bit fuzzy and can vary day-to-day. And since the exercise is less than two weeks long, we're not going to go kicking people in the teeth for inaccurate reports.
Saturday, July 14, 2018
The fair share vs. the fade out
Friday, July 13, 2018
The assignment I'll miss
|
DUTY TITLE |
LOCATION |
|
CHIEF PLANS & OPS DIV |
AK, FT GREELY |
|
USARAK DEPUTY COFS |
AK, JB ELMENDORF-RICHARDSON |
|
DSCA PLANNER |
ALASKA |
|
TRANSPORTATION OFFICER |
APG, MD |
|
|
BELGIUM |
|
AOPSO |
CALIFORNIA |
|
CO CDR (BNR STOKES) |
CALIFORNIA |
|
COMPANY COMMANDER |
CALIFORNIA |
|
MN1 S1-S4 OC/T |
CAMP ATTERBURY, IN |
|
BDE ASST S4 OC/T |
CAMP ATTERBURY, IN |
|
SR OC/T |
CAMP SHELBY, MI |
|
BSB SR CO OC/T |
CAMP SHELBY, MI |
|
APMS |
CONNECTICUT |
|
SR OC/T |
FL, CAMP BLANDING |
|
COMPANY COMMANDER |
FLORIDA |
|
INSTR/WTR (OCS) |
FT BENNING, GA |
|
INSTR-WTR (OCS) |
FT BENNING, GA |
|
BDE S4 |
FT DIX, NJ |
|
OPNS OFF |
FT EUSTIS, VA |
|
LOG OFFICER |
FT EUSTIS, VA |
|
TRANS OFFICER |
FT EUSTIS, VA |
|
OPN STF OFF |
FT EUSTIS, VA |
|
BSB1 MNT/AMMO OFF |
FT HOOD, TX |
|
TEST OFFICER |
FT HOOD, TX |
|
TRANSPORTATION OFF |
FT IRWIN, CA |
|
FSC OC |
FT IRWIN, CA |
|
SPO PLAN OFFICER |
FT KNOX, KY |
|
SCENARIO PLANNER |
FT LEAVENWORTH, KS |
|
TNG STAFF OFF |
FT LEAVENWORTH, KS |
|
OPNS OFF |
FT LEAVENWORTH, KS |
|
TNG STAFF OFF |
FT LEAVENWORTH, KS |
|
OPERATIONS OFF |
FT LEAVENWORTH, KS |
|
OPERATIONS OFFICER |
FT LEE, VA |
|
ASST S2/S3 |
FT LEE, VA |
|
INSTRUCTOR |
FT LEE, VA |
|
BOLC INSTR |
FT LEE, VA |
|
BOLC INSTR |
FT LEE, VA |
|
BOLC INSTR |
FT LEE, VA |
|
BOLC INSTR |
FT LEE, VA |
|
TRANS OFF |
FT LEE, VA |
|
CD STAFF OFFICER |
FT LEE, VA |
|
CD AO |
FT LEE, VA |
|
CD STAFF OFFICER (ILS) |
FT LEE, VA |
|
BSB S3 OC/T |
FT MCCOY, WI |
|
SR OC/T (S3) |
FT MCCOY, WI |
|
SPECIAL EVENTS OFF, PAO |
FT MCNAIR, VA |
|
SUST SR OCT |
FT POLK, LA |
|
FSC CO OCT |
FT POLK, LA |
|
BSB SPO MAINT OCT |
FT POLK, LA |
|
HHC BCT CO SR OCT |
FT POLK, LA |
|
FSC CO OCT |
FT POLK, LA |
|
TF ALOC OCT |
FT POLK, LA |
|
PLANS OFFICER |
FT RILEY, KS |
|
AMEDD DCC INSTRUCTOR |
FT SILL, OK |
|
AMEDD DCC INSTRUCTOR |
FT SILL, OK |
|
AMEDD DCC INSTRUCTOR |
FT SILL, OK |
|
COMPANY CDR (1ST TIME) |
GEORGIA, THE STATE |
|
.... |
GERMANY |
|
OPERATIONS OFFICER |
GERMANY |
|
TF SUSTAINMENT OCT |
GERMANY |
|
|
GERMANY |
|
MAINTENANCE OFFICER |
GERMANY |
|
IG |
GERMANY |
|
OPERATIONS OFFICER |
GERMANY |
|
LOG OFF |
GERMANY |
|
LOG OFF |
GERMANY |
|
OPS OFF |
GERMANY |
|
TRANSPORTATION OFFICER |
HAWAII |
|
LOG OPERATIONS OFF |
HI, FT SHAFTER |
|
|
HI, FT SHAFTER |
|
|
HI, FT SHAFTER |
|
LOGISTICS OFFICER |
HI, FT SHAFTER |
|
TRAINING OFFICER IN G3 |
HI, FT SHAFTER |
|
LIAISON OFFICER IN G3 |
HI, FT SHAFTER |
|
LOG OFF |
HI, FT SHAFTER |
|
LOG OFF |
HI, FT SHAFTER |
|
OPERATIONS OFFICER |
HI, SCHOFIELD BRKS |
|
SPO PLANS OFF |
HI, SCHOFIELD BRKS |
|
S3 |
HI, SCHOFIELD BRKS |
|
TRANS OPS OFFICER |
HI, SCHOFIELD BRKS |
|
COMPANY CDR (1ST TIME) |
ILLINOIS |
|
COMPANY CDR (2ND TIME) |
IOWA |
|
OPS OFFICER |
JAPAN |
|
LOG OPS OFF |
JAPAN |
|
ASST SUPPLY MGMT OFF |
JAPAN |
|
MN1 S1-S4 OC/T |
JB LEWIS-MCCHORD |
|
FA BN S1-S4 OC/T |
JB LEWIS-MCCHORD |
|
DEPUTY SPEECH WRITER |
KOREA, CAMP HUMPHEYS/OSAN |
|
G3 CUOPS OPS OFF |
KOREA, TAEGU |
|
ASST CORRIDOR CON OFF |
KOREA, YONGSON |
|
ASST CORRIDOR CON |
KOREA, YONGSON |
|
INST TRANS OFFICER |
KUWAIT |
|
LOG PLANS OFFICER |
MACDILL AFB, FL |
|
SOJTF-4 (LOGISTICS) |
MACDILL AFB, FL |
|
COMPANY CDR (2ND TIME) |
MASSACHUSETTS |
|
COMPANY CDR (1ST TIME) |
MISSOURI |
|
COMPANY CDR (1ST TIME) |
NEW YORK |
|
COMPANY CDR (2ND TIME) |
NEW YORK |
|
COMPANY CDR (1ST TIME) |
NEWHAMPSHIRE |
|
ADV/ARMY REP |
NORTH CAROLINA |
|
OPERATIONS OFFICER |
NORTH CAROLINA |
|
COMPANY CDR (2ND TIME) |
PENNSYLVANIA |
|
CDR CO E |
PRESIDIO MONTEREY, CA |
|
DSCA PLANNER |
PUERTO RICO |
|
PLANS OFFICER |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF (MAINT) |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
PLANS OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF (MAINT) |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
LOG OFF |
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
|
ROCK ISLAND ARSENAL, IL |
|
ASST AMD OPS OFF DLD |
SC, SHAW AFB |
|
HHD COMMANDER |
SCOTT AFB, IL |
|
COMPANY CDR (1ST TIME) |
TENNESSEE |
|
WTB BN S-3 |
TEXAS |
|
COMPANY CDR (2ND TIME) |
TEXAS |
|
BN OPERATIONS OFFICER |
TEXAS |
|
COMPANY CDR (2ND TIME) |
WEST VIRGINIA |
|
COMPANY CDR (1ST TIME) |
WEST VIRGINIA |