[Source]
Friday, August 30, 2024
Don't toss that
When you know slang words in other dialects of English, some things are unintentionally funny.
[Source]
[Source]
Monday, April 29, 2024
A bank killer of a financial move
In November 2021, I refinanced the mortgage on our Hawaii house. We locked in a 1.99% interest rate on the remaining principal (~$590k) for 30 years.
Fast forward to today, and Republic First bank has gone gone into receivership. Why? Because in 2021, "Previous leadership invest[ed] heavily in long-duration securities with low fixed interest rates." As interest rates have risen since then, those securities have declined in value.
Then, in 2022, Republic First "grew [its] jumbo mortgage portfolio at below-market interest rates." Although our refinance was through a different lender, that very well describes what we did to the bank we refinanced with. We locked got a fixed, jumbo mortgage at what is now a below market rate. Not just below market, but below the current inflation rate.
Whether or not that situation is widespread, or if it represents a serious threat to the banking industry, only time will tell. Regardless, it represents one of the few time, to paraphrase Danny Ocean, when I've had the perfect hand, and I've bet big, and taken the house.
Fast forward to today, and Republic First bank has gone gone into receivership. Why? Because in 2021, "Previous leadership invest[ed] heavily in long-duration securities with low fixed interest rates." As interest rates have risen since then, those securities have declined in value.
Then, in 2022, Republic First "grew [its] jumbo mortgage portfolio at below-market interest rates." Although our refinance was through a different lender, that very well describes what we did to the bank we refinanced with. We locked got a fixed, jumbo mortgage at what is now a below market rate. Not just below market, but below the current inflation rate.
Whether or not that situation is widespread, or if it represents a serious threat to the banking industry, only time will tell. Regardless, it represents one of the few time, to paraphrase Danny Ocean, when I've had the perfect hand, and I've bet big, and taken the house.
Friday, February 23, 2024
The upcoming solar eclipse
The April 8th total solar eclipse will pass directly over my house in Bell County, TX. Apparently, it's going to be a disaster. [Source]
"Bell County Judge David Blackburn issued a local disaster declaration this week, ahead of the April 8 natural phenomenon, saying the county's population of 400,000 residents is expected to double in tourists."
Whether fortunately or unfortunately, I won't be there. Fortunately, because I don't need to deal with the expected "traffic congestion, shortages of food and fuel, and cellular network congestion."
Unfortunately, because -- given the path of totality, the time of day, and Texas' expected clear weather -- I will probably *never* live in a better place to see a total solar eclipse.
"Bell County Judge David Blackburn issued a local disaster declaration this week, ahead of the April 8 natural phenomenon, saying the county's population of 400,000 residents is expected to double in tourists."
Whether fortunately or unfortunately, I won't be there. Fortunately, because I don't need to deal with the expected "traffic congestion, shortages of food and fuel, and cellular network congestion."
Unfortunately, because -- given the path of totality, the time of day, and Texas' expected clear weather -- I will probably *never* live in a better place to see a total solar eclipse.
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Great idea, but let's not risk it.
It is easier to teach students what to think than how to think. It's also much safer.
For example, Texas' U.S. history book for 11th graders introduces domino theory on page 501. The idea in 1954 was that -- without U.S. intervention -- South Vietnam would fall to Communism, followed by the rest of Southeast Asia, like a line of dominoes.
Twenty years later, that *is* how it turned out. Following North Vietnam's takeover of the South in April 1975, Laos' fragile coalition government collapsed and the Khmer Rouge took over Cambodia. The textbook concludes on page 511 that domino theory played out as predicted.
But is this the right conclusion? To draw a straight line from 1954 to 1975 ignores *everything* the U.S. did in the two decades in-between. Yes, Laos and Cambodia fell to Communism, but was that because we *didn't* intervene or *because we did*?
During the Vietnam War, the United States dropped more tons of explosives on Laos -- on a per capita basis -- than on *any* other country in history, DESPITE the fact they were a neutral party. Even now, "at the current rate of clearance, it would take another 100 years" to clear Laos of all the unexploded ordnance. [Source]
Would Laos' coalition government still have fallen if we had *not* done that? And what prevented Thailand from suffering the same fate?
Ah, but these questions are too dangerous to ask. Rather than risk students coming to an unpatriotic conclusion, the authors quickly provide the right answer and move on. After all, teachers have a lot to cover.
Thus, we teach students "what to think" rather than "how to think."
And as with all decisions, there are consequences for that choice.
For example, Texas' U.S. history book for 11th graders introduces domino theory on page 501. The idea in 1954 was that -- without U.S. intervention -- South Vietnam would fall to Communism, followed by the rest of Southeast Asia, like a line of dominoes.
Twenty years later, that *is* how it turned out. Following North Vietnam's takeover of the South in April 1975, Laos' fragile coalition government collapsed and the Khmer Rouge took over Cambodia. The textbook concludes on page 511 that domino theory played out as predicted.
But is this the right conclusion? To draw a straight line from 1954 to 1975 ignores *everything* the U.S. did in the two decades in-between. Yes, Laos and Cambodia fell to Communism, but was that because we *didn't* intervene or *because we did*? During the Vietnam War, the United States dropped more tons of explosives on Laos -- on a per capita basis -- than on *any* other country in history, DESPITE the fact they were a neutral party. Even now, "at the current rate of clearance, it would take another 100 years" to clear Laos of all the unexploded ordnance. [Source]
Would Laos' coalition government still have fallen if we had *not* done that? And what prevented Thailand from suffering the same fate?
Ah, but these questions are too dangerous to ask. Rather than risk students coming to an unpatriotic conclusion, the authors quickly provide the right answer and move on. After all, teachers have a lot to cover.
Thus, we teach students "what to think" rather than "how to think."
And as with all decisions, there are consequences for that choice.
Tuesday, February 06, 2024
It's older than that.
"Oh! The Simpsons predicted that!" Supposedly, The Simpsons predicted Apple's new Vision Pro back in 2016.Not so much.
Nice thing about being old is that you can call a foul when somebody thinks VR is a new thing. We were watching movies about it back in 1995. [See: Virtuosity, starring Denzel Washington and a pre-Gladiator Russell Crowe.]
Friday, February 02, 2024
Thursday, February 01, 2024
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