Friday, March 14, 2008

Weakening Won

Because of the likelihood of recession in the U.S., the dollar has been weakening, and there's a big rush to commodities (gold, oil, etc.) that is weakening it further. I thought that would be good for the won-dollar exchange rate, but that's not the case. In fact, the situation is the exact opposite of what I was expecting

This has made me quite cross.

After many years of the Korean won strengthening against the dollar, the past few months have seen a big drop in its value. Just today it hit a three year low.

Newspapers have been chocking it up to a flight from emerging markets. As U.S.-based investors face uncertainty in the global economy, they're divesting of their foreign holdings and repatriating their funds. That's a huge tide of money I have to swim against.

The 8 percent drop from its high water mark in November means it's costing me about 150,000 won ($150) more to send back my normal monthly remittance of $2,000.

The good news is that I can probably get by with just one more remittance before I move back to the U.S. in July and start getting a dollar-based salary (the Army pays in dollars, of course). And if I'm lucky, I'll be stationed in Korea, where I can then take advantage of the reversal in the won's progress.

"One man's tragedy is another man's fortune." Strange that they could both be me.

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