Putin's Zugzwang

There is this idea that Russia's president Vladimir Putin is playing chess, while Biden is playing checkers. It's a tired trope.

First, he's not playing against Biden. Second, in the words of columnist Uzi Baram, he's more of a failed chess player than anything else. [Source]

Putin took a risk in invading Ukraine. Thinking that it would be as easy as taking Crimea in 2014, his invasion advanced along three axes in the north, east, and south. It quickly became bogged down in logistical challenges. If anything, it seems Putin -- having bungled the opening -- is now stuck is in a mid-game zugzwang.

• He does not have he combat power to control all of Ukraine.
• He does not have the logistics capability to penetrate into the country.
• Any action he takes to "neutralize" Ukraine risks expanding NATO further.
• If he seizes a part of the periphery (Donetsk/Luhansk), the Ukrainian population shifts to the West. Any possibility of Ukraine being a "neutral" country will disappear.
• If he withdraws, it means the end of his dream to unite all the Russian peoples throughout the former Soviet Union.

The best option, it seems, is to bide time (reducing cities to rubble), and hope that Russia's economic partnership with China will alleviate the situation. Putin is stuck in a strategic trap of his own making. Any move he makes will only lose the game for him.